PENNSYLVANIA POKER – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  There is major political news coming out of the very important state of Pennsylvania.  And it could affect the makeup of the next U.S. Senate.

Arlen Specter, who switched from the Republican to the Democratic Party, seemed on track to win the Democratic nomination this year for another term in the Senate.  But in recent days Congressman Joe Sestak, his challenger for the nomination, has made dramatic strides and now leads Specter.  From RealClearPolitics:

The trend remains ominous for Sen. Arlen Specter (D) in the Muhlenberg College tracking poll (5/6-9, 398 LVs, MoE +/- 5%) of the Pennsylvania Senate race. Rep. Joe Sestak (D) leads for the third straight day, having turned a 9-point deficit last week into a 5-point lead.

Senate Primary Election Matchup
Sestak 47 (+1)
Specter 42 (unch)
Und 11 (-1)

Toppling Specter, a Pennsylvania institution, would be a political earthquake.  It might also mean trouble for our side.  Polls show former Republican Congressman Pat Toomey, the almost-certain GOP nominee for the Senate, could defeat Specter.

Sestak is another story.  He's a fresh face, and a former Navy vice admiral.  When you listen to him, you wonder how he ever got that high.  He is, however, a consummate politician, the smoothest of smooth talkers, which may explain it.  His separation from the Navy was, apparently, not entirely a happy one, something any opponent would want to explore. 

But Sestak, in part because of his military background, may give Toomey a harder time than Specter would.  We have counted on Pennsylvania as a possible GOP pickup this November.  Not so sure right now.  And Florida is looking tight, with Gov. Charlie Crist running as an independent.

As we've said here before, November is going to be a tough fight for the Republicans, despite what some early polls might say.  The GOP must run every race as if it's 20 points behind.

May 10, 2010